The S&P 500 is down almost 4% since we last blogged about the increasing likelihood of renewed recession and market weakness. Unable to retake the flattening 200-day moving average a second time, the market sold off and is now 2.5% below the 50-day moving average. Further, the 20-day moving average is set to fall below the 50-day, which would put the four main moving averages (200, 100, 50, and 20) in bear market order. The Japanese Nikkei is already in a bear market. The S&P 500 was down almost 18% at its low in early July and looks increasingly likely to retest it - and fall below 1000 on a failed retest. Our forecast is based on our outlook for the economy, which continues to show every sign of falling back into recession.
Our December 2009 forecast of at least a 20% pullback in the S&P 500 sometime in 2010 looks increasingly like another solid win for the home team. We had written that the spring of 2010 was the most likely time (missed it slightly as the pullback stopped at 18%) and that the fall was next most likely. Our belief in a 2010 bear market stemmed from a few basic observations. First, the 2009 market recovery went further and faster than any bear market recovery since 1933, leaving the S&P 500 about 35% overvalued based on a number of long term valuation metrics (metrics Wall Street doesn't like to acknowledge because it gets in the way of them selling product to the unsuspecting public). Second, the economic recovery touted by the Fed and the Obama administration just wasn't supported by the numbers. Inventory swings were the main factor in the positive GDP numbers in Q4 of 2009 and Q1 of 2010. Final demand remained punk, as you would expect given the huge debt load born by the consumer, the lack of credit formation, and unbalanced make up of GDP (the consumers' share had grown to a record 72% during the spending orgy and is likely to fall back to a more sustainable 66% or so in the coming years).
Pair an overvalued, overbought market with an under performing economy and you are likely looking at poor market action going forward - which was our call in December 2009 and remains our call today. Market performance in 2010 has more than justified our cautious stance coming into the year. And unless the Federal Reserve gets busy printing more paper, the S&P 500 looks increasingly like it will sink to new lows for the year. The market is unlikely to test new lows for the secular bear market that began in March of 2000 however, because the Fed is clearly targeting the stock market now as a source of wealth and will eventually get around to supporting it. The Fed is likely to act sooner rather than later with renewed quantitative easing - given Bernanke's latest statements - and that just might give the market a lift into year end, but perhaps starting from the 850-900 level....
Biechele Royce Advisors continues to advocate proper diversification among all major asset classes with emphasis on blue-chip dividend paying stocks in the U.S., tangible assets, and nondollar assets. We continue to believe that inflation will pose a major threat to wealth preservation over the next ten years. Finally, we offer another reminder that secular bear markets require a focus on capital preservation first and capital appreciation second…
Posted by Chris Norwood, CFA(R) at 8:42 AM
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Recession Looming
We did get the short term pullback predicted in our 14 July blog. We referenced the 20-day moving average sitting at about 1075 as a likely destination. The actual decline bottomed on 20 July at about 1060 before the S&P 500 motored higher once again, retaking the 200-day moving average in the process. Unfortunately, the S&P 500 was unable to maintain above that long term trend line, peaking at 1130ish in early August, before sliding back below the 200-day (We had written about strong resistance in the 1100-1130 area likely putting a lid on the stock market for the foreseeable future).
The stock market has essentially gone nowhere since last October, validating our concerns about an overpriced market that had climbed too far and too fast after the March 2009 bear market bottom. We have stated repeatedly since last October that it is a high risk market and investors should proceed cautiously. We are even more concerned today because the market has now put in a ten month top and a broad decline is increasingly likely in the fall, or next spring at the latest. It increasingly appears as if distribution is occurring whereby professional investors distribute shares to the public, leaving the public holding the bag when the market decline starts in earnest. One indication of distribution is On-Balance-Volume (OBV), which is showing a negative divergence over the last few months, portending coming weakness.
But what is the fundamental case for a broad stock market decline? Well, how about a return to recession? The probability of another recession (or continuation of the one which started in early 2007) is quite high. Real M-3 (the broadest measure of money supply) is still contracting strongly year-over-year. Recession has followed 100% of the time when real money supply contracts on an annualized basis, typically with a six to nine month lag. As well, the ECRI is now contracting sharply and, again, recession has followed 100% of the time when the contraction is as sharp as now. Likewise, real retail sales are weakening with July real retail sales growth essentially zero - opening up the possibility that Q3 real retail sales will turn negative. Furthermore, a surprisingly bad June trade deficit number will result in a reduction in reported Q2 GDP. The deteriorating trade balance also increases the likelihood of a negative Q3 GDP number. Finally, a developing contraction in housing starts, along with deterioration in a slew of other housing numbers, adds further pressure to an economy already under siege.
Expect a retest of the recent 1010 low on the S&P 500 with a likely decline into the 800 to 900 area within the next six months. Investors should continue to proceed with extreme caution in a very high risk market.
(A major caveat: the Fed appears likely to initiate a new quantitative easing program sooner rather than later, which would provide major support to the stock market, at least in nominal terms.)
The stock market has essentially gone nowhere since last October, validating our concerns about an overpriced market that had climbed too far and too fast after the March 2009 bear market bottom. We have stated repeatedly since last October that it is a high risk market and investors should proceed cautiously. We are even more concerned today because the market has now put in a ten month top and a broad decline is increasingly likely in the fall, or next spring at the latest. It increasingly appears as if distribution is occurring whereby professional investors distribute shares to the public, leaving the public holding the bag when the market decline starts in earnest. One indication of distribution is On-Balance-Volume (OBV), which is showing a negative divergence over the last few months, portending coming weakness.
But what is the fundamental case for a broad stock market decline? Well, how about a return to recession? The probability of another recession (or continuation of the one which started in early 2007) is quite high. Real M-3 (the broadest measure of money supply) is still contracting strongly year-over-year. Recession has followed 100% of the time when real money supply contracts on an annualized basis, typically with a six to nine month lag. As well, the ECRI is now contracting sharply and, again, recession has followed 100% of the time when the contraction is as sharp as now. Likewise, real retail sales are weakening with July real retail sales growth essentially zero - opening up the possibility that Q3 real retail sales will turn negative. Furthermore, a surprisingly bad June trade deficit number will result in a reduction in reported Q2 GDP. The deteriorating trade balance also increases the likelihood of a negative Q3 GDP number. Finally, a developing contraction in housing starts, along with deterioration in a slew of other housing numbers, adds further pressure to an economy already under siege.
Expect a retest of the recent 1010 low on the S&P 500 with a likely decline into the 800 to 900 area within the next six months. Investors should continue to proceed with extreme caution in a very high risk market.
(A major caveat: the Fed appears likely to initiate a new quantitative easing program sooner rather than later, which would provide major support to the stock market, at least in nominal terms.)
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